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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.