🔗 Share this article

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.